At ATF 2025, Tony Gunnarsson, senior principal analyst at Omdia, offered a stark and realistic view of the future of the audiovisual business. His diagnosis breaks with the narrative of an imminent “total revolution” in streaming: according to Omdia’s latest projections, TV and video will remain as fragmented as they are today, even well into the 2030s.
Far from disappearing, linear TV remains surprisingly resilient. Although some markets (particularly the US) are seeing a decline in pay TV subscribers, Gunnarsson insisted that broadcast’s lifespan remains strong. Households will continue to combine traditional television, free and paid platforms, and social media consumption. A hybrid ecosystem, increasingly complex and without a “single winner.”
In this landscape, SVOD will remain key for premium content, but its growth has stalled. The real areas of expansion are FAST and, above all, micro-dramas, a phenomenon that China has turned into a million-dollar industry. ‘When I hear how they produce and the speed at which they do it, my mind is blown’, admitted Gunnarsson. By the end of next year, he estimates that the sector will generate USD 14 million, with China in the lead and the US as the second largest market.
The rise of these short formats not only responds to young audiences, but also to a narrative design designed to retain attention: constant hooks, fast pace, and an almost gamified logic between time, desire for consumption, and monetization.
Faced with the eternal question of whether social video competes with or complements premium video, Gunnarsson leaned toward coexistence: ‘The future of video is not one or the other, but the combination’. In 2030, content will continue to move between multiple screens and models, with advertising as a key driver of growth.
Could a new disruptor emerge? For Omdia, it is unlikely. Large companies have already deployed their strategies and the market is fiercely competitive. AI will have an impact, yes, but it will not displace the essence of the business: telling good stories.
